W.D Gann ... Trader beware!
In Chapter 15 of my book Trading The SPI I discuss W.D Gann (Gann) along with a number of other forms of analysis that I collectively refer to as The Predictors. In Chapter 15 I quote the Gann experiences of Dr Alexander Elder and Larry Williams. Needless to say they don't look favourably upon Gann. What I didn't do in Chapter 15 was share my actual Gann experiences.
I'd like to rectify that and add my own small contribution to the Gann debate.
As you can imagine, over the last 22 years of trading, teaching, advising and giving talks, that I’ve come across hundreds of traders, many of whom are students of Gann. Out of all the Gann traders I’ve met and know today I can say that not one, let me repeat that, not one consistently makes money actively trading according to Gann. Full stop. Certainly many Gann ‘analysts’ can verify a market turning point in hindsight with selective application of one of Gann’s many techniques. But then you would expect them to since they have so many techniques in their bag of tricks to choose from when curve fitting to past market data. And what a big bag it is – there is a smorgasbord of angles, degrees, vibrations, retracements, projections, anniversary dates and points on their square of nine. If one Gann tool doesn't work they'll pick another!
Now I know one person’s observations over 20 years is not statistically significant and cannot be accepted as a definitive comment on Gann. However, in the interests of transparency I thought I’d share my “Gann” experiences with you to balance the marketing hype you’ll no doubt encounter.
And please remember these are only my experiences. If your experience is contrary then that’s terrific and I can only encourage you to share your personal Gann experiences with other Gann students. I know there are many that would wish to learn how you managed to unlock Gann’s trading "secrets". But remember to bring along your real time active trading results if you do.
If you feel inclined to learn Gann and attend a Gann Seminar I can only encourage you to request a copy of the promoters real time trading statements. If you can see a copy of their real time trading record you should also elicit a commitment from them to explain each and every Gann trade to you following completion of the seminar. This is a very reasonable request since they are offering to teach you Gann which they themselves trade to make their money (right?).
As I say in my book, if you aren't already it's best to become a cynic in this business of trading. It'll be alot less expensive and frustrating if you do!
Successful Money Management
Brent Penfold
Sydney, Australia